Make-or-Break US-EU Trade Talks: Deadline Nears, Stakes Rise. US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are holding critical last-minute trade talks in Scotland today, as both sides race to avoid a sweeping transatlantic trade war.
The meeting, scheduled for 4:30 PM (1530 GMT) at Trump’s Turnberry resort in southwestern Scotland, comes just days before the August 1 deadline set by Washington. Without a deal, the United States will impose a 30% tariff on all EU exports, significantly escalating existing trade tensions.
Trump Warns: “No Extensions”
Trump has made it clear—there will be “no extensions”. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed the stance on Sunday, stating, “The August 1 deadline is firm. No more grace periods.”
Trump said Friday he sees a 50-50 chance of reaching an agreement, calling it possibly “the biggest deal of them all.” However, he admitted there are still disagreements on about 20 different issues.
EU Eyes Deal to Protect $1.9 Trillion Trade
The European Union, represented by von der Leyen, is urgently pushing to safeguard the $1.9 trillion annual trading relationship. A senior EU diplomat revealed that a deal framework is already in place, but key details require Trump’s final approval.
The proposed deal reportedly includes:
A 15% baseline tariff on EU exports to the US — the same rate Japan agreed to.
Exemptions for aircraft and spirits, but not for wine.
Tariffs of 15% on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
A steel quota allowing limited EU imports before tariffs apply.
Increased EU purchases of US liquefied natural gas (LNG).
However, the automotive sector, vital to Germany and France, remains a major sticking point. It is unclear how the proposed tariffs will affect European car exports, which already face a 25% US duty.
EU Prepares for Countermeasures
If talks collapse, the EU has approved retaliatory tariffs on $109 billion worth of US goods, including cars and aircraft. These countermeasures could take effect starting August 7.
Brussels is also exploring broader trade restrictions using its new anti-coercion mechanism, which could limit US access to the EU market and public contracts — a move that would significantly escalate the standoff.
Public Opinion Shifts Against Trump’s Trade Strategy
Trump’s aggressive trade approach faces growing criticism at home. A recent Gallup poll shows his approval rating has dropped to 37%, down 10 points since January. Despite promising “90 deals in 90 days,” the Trump administration has signed just five, including with the UK, Japan, and the Philippines.
With time running out and global markets watching closely, all eyes are on Turnberry today as Trump and von der Leyen enter make-or-break trade talks that could redefine US-EU economic relations for years to come.
